Prediction, Chaos and Ecological Perspective.

Ulanowicz, Robert E. (1979) Prediction, Chaos and Ecological Perspective. In: Halfon, Efraim (ed.) Theoretical Systems Ecology. New York, Academic Press, pp. 107-117.

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As defined, the modeling procedure is quite broad. For example, the chosen compartments may contain a single organism, a population of organisms, or an ensemble of populations. A population compartment, in turn, could be homogeneous or possess structure in size or age. Likewise, the mathematical statements may be deterministic or probabilistic in nature, linear or nonlinear, autonomous or able to possess memory. Examples of all types appear in the literature. In practice, however, ecosystem modelers have focused upon particular types of model constructions. Most analyses seem to treat compartments which are nonsegregated (populations or trophic levels) and homogeneous. The accompanying mathematics is, for the most part, deterministic and autonomous. Despite the enormous effort which has gone into such ecosystem modeling, there remains a paucity of models which meets the rigorous &! validation criteria which might be applied to a model of a mechanical system. Most ecosystem models are short on prediction ability. Even some classical examples, such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey scheme, have not spawned validated examples.

Item Type: Book Section
Title: Prediction, Chaos and Ecological Perspective.
Personal Creator/Author:
Ulanowicz, Robert E.
Title of Book: Theoretical Systems Ecology
Halfon, Efraim
Refereed: Yes
Page Range: pp. 107-117
Date: 1979
Publisher: Academic Press
Place of Publication: New York
ISBN: 0-12-318750-8
Additional Information: UMCES Contribution No. 789
Uncontrolled Keywords: Models
Subjects: Ecology
Item ID: 2002
Depositing User: Kathleen Heil
Date Deposited: 09 Apr 2009 02:50
Last Modified: 14 Dec 2010 16:47

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