A probability-based approach to setting annual catch levels.

Shertzer, Kyle W. and Prager, Michael H. and Williams, Erik H. (2008) A probability-based approach to setting annual catch levels. Fishery Bulletin, 106(3), pp. 225-232.

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The requirement of setting annual catch limits to prevent overfishing has been added to the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Reauthorization Act of 2006 (MSRA). Because this requirement is new, a body of applied scientific practice for deriving annual catch limits and accompanying targets does not yet exist. This article demonstrates an approach to setting levels of catch that is intended to keep the probability of future overfishing at a preset low level. The proposed framework is based on stochastic projection with uncertainty in population dynamics. The framework extends common projection methodology by including uncertainty in the limit reference point and in management implementation, and by making explicit the risk of overfishing that managers consider acceptable. The approach is illustrated with application to gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a grouper that inhabits the waters off the southeastern United States. Although devised to satisfy new legislation of the MSRA, the framework has potential application to any fishery where the management goal is to limit the risk of overfishing by controlling catch.

Item Type: Article
Title: A probability-based approach to setting annual catch levels.
Personal Creator/Author:
Shertzer, Kyle W.Kyle.Shertzer@noaa.gov
Prager, Michael H.Mike.Prager@noaa.gov
Williams, Erik H.Erik.Williams@noaa.gov
Journal or Publication Title: Fishery Bulletin
Volume: 106
Number: 3
Page Range: pp. 225-232
Date: 2008
Issuing Agency: United States National Marine Fisheries Service
Uncontrolled Keywords: catch levels; modeling
Subjects: Management
Item ID: 2088
Depositing User: Patti M. Marraro
Date Deposited: 17 May 2009 17:11
Last Modified: 29 Sep 2011 19:40
URI: http://aquaticcommons.org/id/eprint/2088

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