Investigating changes in global tropical cyclone storm frequency and intensity

Hennon, Paula and Kruk, Michael and Levinson, David (2010) Investigating changes in global tropical cyclone storm frequency and intensity. In: Shifting Shorelines: Adapting to the Future,The 22nd International Conference of the Coastal Society , June 13-16, 2010 ,Wilmington, North Carolina,

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Abstract

Understanding fluctuations in tropical cyclone activity along United States shores and abroad becomes increasingly important as coastal managers and planners seek to save lives, mitigate damage, and plan for resilience in the face of changing storminess and sea-level rise. Tropical cyclone activity has long been of concern to coastal areas as they bring strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas. Given projections of a warming climate, current estimates suggest that not only will tropical cyclones increase in frequency, but also in intensity (maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressures). An understanding of what has happened historically is an important step in identifying potential future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. The ability to detect such changes depends on a consistent and reliable global tropical cyclone dataset. Until recently no central repository for historical tropical cyclone data existed. To fill this need, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset was developed to collect all known global historical tropical cyclone data into a single source for dissemination. With this dataset, a global examination of changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity can be performed. Caveats apply to any historical tropical cyclone analysis however, as the data contributed to the IBTrACS archive from various tropical cyclone warning centers is still replete with biases that may stem from operational changes, inhomogeneous monitoring programs, and time discontinuities. A detailed discussion of the difficulties in detecting trends using tropical cyclone data can be found in Landsea et al. 2006. The following sections use the IBTrACS dataset to show the global spatial variability of tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Analyses will show where the strongest storms typically occur, the regions with the highest number of tropical cyclones per decade, and the locations of highest average maximum wind speeds. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item
Title: Investigating changes in global tropical cyclone storm frequency and intensity
Personal Creator/Author:
CreatorsEmail
Hennon, Paulapaula.hennon@noaa.gov
Kruk, Michael
Levinson, David
Date: 2010
Funders: National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. EPA Coastal Management Branch, U.S. Geolgocial Survey, NOAA Sea Grant
Event Title: Shifting Shorelines: Adapting to the Future,The 22nd International Conference of the Coastal Society
Event Type: Conference
Event Location: Wilmington, North Carolina
Event Dates: June 13-16, 2010
Issuing Agency: The Coastal Society
Uncontrolled Keywords: TCS22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
Information Management
Item ID: 3912
Depositing User: Cynthia Murray
Date Deposited: 29 Jul 2010 21:29
Last Modified: 29 Sep 2011 16:49
Related URLs:
URI: http://aquaticcommons.org/id/eprint/3912

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