Hennon, Paula and Kruk, Michael and Levinson, David
Investigating changes in global tropical cyclone storm frequency and intensity.
In: Shifting Shorelines: Adapting to the Future,The 22nd International Conference of the Coastal Society
, June 13-16, 2010
, Wilmington, North Carolina.
Understanding fluctuations in tropical cyclone activity along United States shores and abroad becomes increasingly
important as coastal managers and planners seek to save lives, mitigate damage, and plan for resilience in the face of changing storminess and sea-level rise. Tropical cyclone activity has long been of concern to coastal areas as they
bring strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas. Given projections of a warming climate, current estimates suggest
that not only will tropical cyclones increase in frequency, but also in intensity (maximum sustained winds and
minimum central pressures). An understanding of what has happened historically is an important step in identifying
potential future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity.
The ability to detect such changes depends on a consistent and reliable global tropical cyclone dataset. Until recently
no central repository for historical tropical cyclone data existed. To fill this need, the International Best Track
Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset was developed to collect all known global historical tropical
cyclone data into a single source for dissemination. With this dataset, a global examination of changes in tropical
cyclone frequency and intensity can be performed. Caveats apply to any historical tropical cyclone analysis
however, as the data contributed to the IBTrACS archive from various tropical cyclone warning centers is still
replete with biases that may stem from operational changes, inhomogeneous monitoring programs, and time
discontinuities. A detailed discussion of the difficulties in detecting trends using tropical cyclone data can be found
in Landsea et al. 2006.
The following sections use the IBTrACS dataset to show the global spatial variability of tropical cyclone frequency
and intensity. Analyses will show where the strongest storms typically occur, the regions with the highest number
of tropical cyclones per decade, and the locations of highest average maximum wind speeds. (PDF contains 3 pages)
Conference or Workshop Item
||Investigating changes in global tropical cyclone storm frequency and intensity
||National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. EPA Coastal Management Branch, U.S. Geolgocial Survey, NOAA Sea Grant
||Shifting Shorelines: Adapting to the Future,The 22nd International Conference of the Coastal Society
||Wilmington, North Carolina
||June 13-16, 2010
||The Coastal Society
||29 Jul 2010 21:29
||29 Sep 2011 16:49
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