Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Prista, Nuno and Diawara, Norou and Costa, Maria José and Jones, Cynthia (2011) Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal. Fishery Bulletin, 109(2), pp. 170-185.

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Abstract

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

Item Type: Article
Title: Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal
Personal Creator/Author:
CreatorsEmail
Prista, Nuno
Diawara, Norou
Costa, Maria José
Jones, Cynthia
Refereed: Yes
Journal or Publication Title: Fishery Bulletin
Volume: 109
Number: 2
Page Range: pp. 170-185
Date: 2011
ISSN: 0090-0656
Issuing Agency: United States National Marine Fisheries Service
Subjects: Biology
Ecology
Fisheries
Item ID: 8715
Depositing User: Patti M. Marraro
Date Deposited: 07 Jun 2012 14:53
Last Modified: 07 Jun 2012 14:53
URI: http://aquaticcommons.org/id/eprint/8715

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